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In this homework, we use the data on textbook Page 107 “The impact of September 11 on Air Travel in the US”. Data details are described on Page 107 for reference.

The impact of September 11 on Air Travel in the US

In this homework, we use the data on textbook Page 107 “The impact of September 11 on Air Travel in the US”. Data details are on Page 107 for reference. This homework requires SPSS analyses (R is acceptable as well, Excel cannot perform the analyses below). Our first step is data partition: split the time series into two parts, pre-September 11 and post-September 11. (Do not forget define time-series data.)

a) Fit a linear regression models to Air, Rail, and Auto. For Air and Auto, fit a linear trend. For Rail, use a quadratic trend. Report ANOVA results as well. Discuss the results.

b) Run a seasonal decomposition for Air series with multiplicative seasonality and show the results output.

c) Which of the following smoothing methods would be adequate for forecasting this series? Discuss your results.

Firstly, simple exponential smoothing.

Secondly, holt’s linear exponential smoothing

Thirdly, Winter’s additive exponential smoothing

More details;

No industry has suffered greater economic damage from the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 than the U.S. airline industry. In addition to directly causing a temporary but complete shut-down of the commercial aviation system, the attacks caused many travelers to reduce or avoid air travel, weary of a newly-perceived risk associated with flying. Likewise, following September 11, many businesses put temporary freezes on all but the most essential travel for their employees.

And although the initial “panic” driven fear of flying immediately following September 11 appears to have largely dissipated. The stringent new security requirements that were implement as a direct result of the terrorist attacks have made traveling by air more cumbersome and time-consuming than prior to September 11. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of September 11 on U.S. airline demand and to determine whether or not September 11 and its after-effects have resulted in a negative shift in the demand for air travel.

This is an assignment that focuses on the Hamilton’s memoir book review on time and food memory. The paper also focuses on crafting a narrative writing.

Hamilton’s memoir book review on time and food memory

Length: 4-5 pages double spaced 12pt. Times New Roman 

Below are the options for this second paper. Please choose one and begin to fashion a coherent argument around the topic. A completed paper will need an attached works cited page in correct MLA format. Please remember to make sure to organize your paper in a logical fashion and craft a strong and workable claim. I direct your attention to the six qualities of effective writing in your student guide as a reminder of what exactly I am looking for in a completed final product.

1.      We spent a lot of time talking about Hamilton’s ethos as a writer. This is your chance to expand on your thoughts about how she builds her ethos in the text and how it impacts you as a reader. This will force you to unpack what you think the central point/argument of the memoir. Then how Hamilton supports that point/argument with a clever establishment of her authorial ethos. This prompt will ask that you wrestle with the common pattern of ethos within the text. I ask that you cite specific examples of ethos and their impact on the overall argument of Hamilton’s memoir.

The Hamilton’s memoir book review on time and food memory

2.      Considering that this paper is due after break, I want to take advantage of some of your travels home or otherwise. For this prompt, I ask that you craft a review of a restaurant that you have eaten at recently. Your goal in this review is to establish your own ethos as an eater whose opinion should be listened to by readers. This prompt will also challenge you to get you critically thinking about the foods you eat. Additionally, the overall point of the restaurant. If food prepared in restaurants is intrinsically linked to the people who cook them, then they have an argument or purpose.

Your goal in this review is to outline what that purpose may have been and why. Also, how it lived up to that (or not) during your dining experience. Don’t worry about where it is you eat—indeed a good interview may be made about the Sodexo markets here at Lehigh—but rather how you situate your own authority as an eater and consumer.

3.      For this prompt:

I want you to take the challenge presented in the genre of Hamilton’s book a memoir to heart: reflect on a time and specific food memory that you can craft into a 3-4 page narrative that uses food as a literary image to deliver a message worth reading. In the same way Hamilton uses the lobsters and the chicken in her memoir, use food to highlight a moment of your past. Then in a 1-2-page reflection, tell me why you made the choices you did in crafting your memoir. For this prompt, you must write a total of five pages.

This paper is on Criminal Justice Decision Making on Arrests. The specific focus of the paper is is disproportionate minority, direction’s impact, programs/policies addressing, and predictions.

Criminal Justice Decision Making on Arrests

The specific focus of the paper is is disproportionate minority, direction’s impact, programs/policies addressing, and predictions.

Introduction paragraph
Should include 5-7 sentences. The goal of the introduction is to let the reader know what to expect from the paper. After the hook, write 3-5 sentences about the specific focus of the paper (disproportionate minority, discretion’s impact, programs/policies addressing, and predictions).What is the paper about? Why is the topic important? Finally, include a thesis statement.

Section1: Disproportionate minority representation
Definition Example the definition of disproportionate and minority group, and an example for both)
Disproportionate minority representation (the over-representation of minority population and the socioeconomic ally disadvantaged involved in the chosen research topic. The discussion will need to include recent data regarding the population comparisons(minority vs non-minority) in a selected geographical region(United States, Maryland, Baltimore City).Then using this same region, discuss the over-representation of minority individuals reflected in statistics for the selected research topic which is Arrest.

Research in this area will need to include data from reliable sources.This data must be cited properly in APA format.

Section 2: Impact of discretion on disproportionate minority representation

Definition Example the definition of it and an example)
All criminal justice professionals (police, prosecutors, judges, etc.) are afforded discretion within the framework of their environment. This section will discuss various reasons that may have led to the disproportionate minority representation in the selected topic which is Arrest. Each reason must be present in paragraph format that includes evidence and also or examples
This discussion on discretion must be cite properly with APA formatted citations.

Section 3: Policies/Programs that reduce disproportionate minority representation
Definitions & Examples (definition of policy/practice and an example for it)
In this section you will explore recent policies and practices that are aim at reducing the disproportionate minority representation. Each policy/practice should be at least one paragraph. Include information on the policy/practice itself (what is the program about) and the goal in reducing/eliminating the disproportionate minority representation, also, be sure to discuss why this program would impact this population.

In this section you will discuss if the policy/practice is/has been effective. In other words, did the policy/practice work or did it not work? You will also need to find data that supports that the policy/practice is effective or not. If the program is Jew and data on whether it work or did not work is not available, you will need to provide rationale for why the policy: practice would be effective or ineffective at reducing the disproportionate minority representation. Without data, please include information on the program elements that are specifically relate to or were not focus on the disproportionate minority population.
The discussion on policies/practices must be in APA format.

Section 4: Predictions that may reduce disproportionate minority representation

In this section you will discuss at least two policies that they predict could decrease the disproportionate minority representation in the selected research focus which is Arrest. Assume there are no restrictions of time, money, political considerations, or other elements when developing this section. You will want to develop a policy/practice that is well with details on how the policy/practice would be effective in reducing/eliminating the disproportionate minority representation.

Concluding Paragraph
It should include 5-7 sentences. The conclusion will summarize the content written from the introduction to the main body. Recap the main ideas and state the conclusions drawn on the topic. Try to refer to the introductory paragraph, either with key words, or parallel concepts. To do so, consider using a quote that highlights the issue, issues a call for action, gives a warning, or even suggests consequences or results that may occur if change does not occur.

The paper must be in APA format.

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This is a paper that is requiring the student to focus on the Rhetorical Analysis of  Public Service Announcement. The paper also provides additional information to use in the writing of this assignment paper. Below is the description of the assessment:

Rhetorical Analysis of  Public Service Announcement

Rhetorical Analysis of  Public Service Announcement (PSA)

Write a rhetorical analysis essay in which you closely analyze the rhetorical situation of a PSA. You will use the three, rhetorical appeals (ethos, logos, and pathos)  to explain your analysis.
The rhetorical situation consists of the:

Author- who is the author of the PSA?, how do you know that? Did you do research? Was it obvious or not?

Audience- who is the intended audience? Why do you think this?

Message- what is the message of the PSA?

Purpose- what is the purpose of the PSA? Is it a call to action? What is that action?

You will use the rhetorical appeals to support the claim you made about the PSA.

For example if a PSA is showing pictures of animals without homes and playing sad music at the same time. You can discuss how the music is using ethos to appeal to the emotions of the audience.

You may find that one rhetorical device is used more than others that is fine that section will be bulkier but you should mention all three

To find a PSA, I suggest entering “Public Service Announcement” in the search bar in YouTube or Google.
Your thesis should clearly explain which appeal is the most clearly presented by the non-profit or profit company which produced the commercial.
In other words, you are analyzing the company’s use of the three appeals and making a judgment concerning which appeal is the most successful and why. You are also analyzing the other two appeals as well – even though their presentation is weaker.
You should discuss whether or not you think the PSA is successful and also craft a short paragraph noting how you would improve it.
Lastly, your evidence is illustrate through your specific analysis of the three appeals in the commercial. You will quote, summarize, and paraphrase (with attribution through in-text citations and also a Works Cited page) the PSA as needed throughout the essay.

Support American Revolution over public policy

This is a paper that is requiring the students to discuss measures to support the American Revolution over public policy. The paper also provides additional information to use in the writing of the assignment paper. Below is the assignment description:

Measures to support the American Revolution over public policy

Our Founding Fathers considered the protection of minority rights as those few individuals who retained control over society. These individuals were property holders, policy makers or those who possessed positions of power. Many today believe that minority rights are protecting special classes as those who possess certain ethnic traits or other characteristics. As monarchies and despots primarily ruled the world, America’s Founding Fathers properly came to reason that their intent to establish a successful republican government would in fact be an anomaly.

Of primary concern was to gather the support of man to subscribe to this new “social contract” thereby relinquishing some rights for the betterment of society. These elites sought to establish a new power structure to assure their position as American elites and not subjects to the Crown. Convincing the masses to join in this revolution required careful manipulation of the masses. Students are asked to contemplate the following question: “What were the primary motivating factors for America’s Founding Fathers to rebel against England?”

Measures to support the American Revolution over public policy

YOUR TASK FOR THIS PAPER IS TO ADDRESS THE FOLLOWING POINTS:
America’s Founding Fathers identified themselves as elites requiring protection against majority factions. Were they more concerned about overreaching government power or the mass class? What measures did the Founders engage to manipulate the masses to support the American Revolution and elite control over public policy?

One may argue that elites still govern our society. If so, then how do today’s elites manipulate the masses to maintain legitimacy? Secondly, are the measures identical to those undertaken by our Founding Fathers?
Thirdly, identify significant specific instances where the degree of legitimacy bestowed on elite leaders has dipped. What would happen if the majority of citizens lose faith in policy makers? Would the result be the destruction of our system or would nothing change?
What is your opinion about protecting minority rights against majority factions? Additionally, do the various checks and balances of our system protect “the people” or today’s ruling class? Has the system really changed throughout our nation’s history?

PAPER LAYOUT

It is recommended that your paper be laid out in the following manner:
Coversheet: Paper title, name, class, section number, e-mail address and instructor’s name.

Introduction: Begin your paper with an introduction that tells the reader how your paper is going to be laid out. Never assume the reader already knows about the subject you are writing about. Tell the reader (Dr. T) what you are writing about all while thinking about the following phrase “Here is the path I’m taking you down and here is why!”
Body: This is the “guts” of your paper.
Conclusion: State how the American Political System can be improved.